In the interest of further fostering all the "hahah print is dead again" holiday cheer, Folio has solicited 117 magazine and media related predictions for 2009. Who will fold? Who will survive? Who will forgo print for web? And who will say screw it and go to law school? After the jump, our five favorite predictions, i.e., the ones that sent us huddled into a fetus position under our desk. (We predict that work-sanctioned panic attacks will become far more common after the new year.)
1. The "Half of You Won't Have Jobs This Time Next Year" prediction
VP and group publisher, Fader Media
Five out of every 10 magazines and newspapers will go out of business, scale down their frequency or move entirely to the Web.
2. The "Stop Applying to J-School and Go Intern or Deal Drugs Instead" prediction
I predict 09 will be the year when J-school applications finally start going down. I also predict a lot of former or aspiring magazine employees will go into drug dealing. Temporarily.
3. The "This Industry is Like the Titanic, And You Are Leo Clinging to Kate, But You Will Let Go, Indeed You Will" prediction
"Media Ink" columnist, New York Post
Bankruptcy becomes the new black for media companies that were financed by heavy debt. More closings of magazines and newspapers and more survivors clinging to the online world as a life boat.
Fundamental problem of the digital age vs. print. While the gross numbers grows, advertisers still don't invest in all the niche products with anywhere near the level of support that they once had for old mainstream media. By the second quarter of 2009, new media will have joined old media in the recession, which will be longer and deeper than any we have known.
4. The "I'm Not-So-Subtly Pitching Laurel Touby Here" prediction
Editor-in-chief, Print; founder, emdashes.com
The good, the bad, and the Ghost of Media Future: Newspaper veterans will unite to create the greatest online resource of all time and overthrow all the sites that put them out of business. Newsday (snappy URL, right?) will rise again as a megasite that dwarfs other news aggregators. PR and journalism will merge to become flackalism. Someone will design an online course called "Multimedia for Magazine Editors in Five Minutes a Day" that will make that someone a whole bunch of money; why not you? Professional bloggers nationwide will unionize, with the encouragement of President Obama and Mayor Bloomberg, and demand full benefits and reasonable work conditions. Readers of long, focused stories online will get tired of scrolling and pay for well-designed paper versions—even more for signed copies from the right authors. (This I can prove.) And someone's got to start paying for the Internet, maybe with a package subscription to favorite sites, which would come, Salon Premium-style, with magazines, music, party invitations, and meaningful community privileges.
5. The "There's A Glimmer of Masochistic Hope In All This Destruction" prediction
Publisher/creative director, Bust
I predict that Kindles will be found to cause cancer and thus magazines will make a comeback, prompting graffiti artists to create Skull/Kindle art on the city streets.
"117 Magazine and Media Predictions for 2009" [Folio]