Consensus is that poets, South Americans and Scandinavians have been underrepresented in the selections of recent years (though not as much as black Africans); safe picks for geographical distribution would probably include the perpetual candidates Llosa and Fuentes, Swedish poet Tomas Tranströmer and Syrian poet Adonis
Politics play into it too—last year, I suggested a liberal Israeli author, like Amoz Oz, would be a politically astute and meaningful choice, as well as geographically diverse; but the Swedish Academy likes to give the award to writers closer to the middle of their career, and David Grossman has a strong narrative on his side this year.
Of course, all this talk about whose "turn" it is doesn't really reflect the reality of the situation—it's been a poet's turn for about five years, and somebody from outside Europe's turn for most of the decade.
But enough of this? Who do you like? Pick names in the comments.