Friday, February 22, 2013

Win Your Oscar Pool: Who to Bet On

Posted By on Fri, Feb 22, 2013 at 1:10 PM

Page 11 of 24

Lincoln Daniel Day Lewis
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis has this about as sewn up as humanly possible. Mere mortal actors might get a demerit from having won twice before, but there is literally nothing anyone in Los Angeles enjoys more than checking Daniel Day-Lewis's name off of awards ballot. It gives them so much more satisfaction than charity work or even an $8 slice of red velvet cake ever could.
Should win: I can't front: Daniel Day-Lewis is fucking phenomenal in Lincoln. He deserves to win as much as I deserve to eat a piece of $8 red velvet cake after writing a long Oscar-prediction article. Maybe even more than that. Given that Day-Lewis absolutely deserves it as usual, here's the thought experiment I played with: if Day-Lewis got beat by someone, which beating would make me excited for the shocking upset and the rich deservedness? The answer to that is Joaquin Phoenix. Who totally got beat for Walk the Line by his Master costar Philip Seymour Hoffman, by the way. Actually, all three of the Master nominees were up that year.
Missing: These five are pretty solid. I feel like I should want to kick Jackman out for someone else, but I can't figure out who (as fine as he is, probably not presumptive sixth-placer John Hawkes for The Sessions). I did think Brad Pitt was pretty awesome in Killing Them Softly but even that would be more of a make-up award for his unrecognized career-best work in Tree of Life and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.

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