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Will win: I can't imagine even the bigger Zero Dark Thirty fans are that excited by the screenplay, though maybe voters will be wowed by the level of research. With the three biggest Best Picture contenders off in Adapted Screenplay, that leaves an opening for Quentin Tarantino, who has won before, but not in almost 20 years. Then again, this category has been a favorite way to reward directors of foreign films, so Michael Haneke could sneak in. In fact, I'm kinda feeling like he will.
Should win: I'd be fine with awarding Tarantino, but Moonrise Kingdom is so lovely, delicate, and hilarious all at once; it's the best piece of writing in the bunch.
Missing: Rian Johnson's Looper has cleverness, coolness, and resonance, but Flight is about alcoholism and contains no science fiction, so please, by all means, nominate another movie where the script is its weakest major facet because it seems so heartfelt and personal. Other scripts I like more than many of these: Whit Stillman's Damsels in Distress, Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master, and Joss Whedon and Drew Goddard's The Cabin in the Woods.