A Guide to Filling Out Your Oscar Ballot: Predictions in Every Category

02/28/2014 9:00 AM |

frozen disney let it go movie song

SCOREThe Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Will Win: Gravity‘s score was hard to miss, and everyone saw the movie, so probably that one.
Should Win: Gravity or Her would both be fine.
Missing: The hummable simplicity of Nebraska‘s themes.

SONG
“Happy,” Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go,” Frozen
“The Moon Song,” Her
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Will Win: “Let It Go” is a juggernaut and its line about how “you’ll never see me cry” ensures that dominance will continue through many years’ worth of middle-school talent shows.
Should Win: I’ll count Karen O performing “The Moon Song” at the ceremony as enough of a win that “Let It Go” can be crowned the actual deserving winner.
Missing: Actually, more Frozen. I’m pretty sure Disney put all their weight behind “Let It Go” in order to combat any potential vote-splitting that could leave Bono as the winner; the other songs from the movie weren’t even on the original eligibility list! (Other movies were more than happy to submit as many choices as possible.) But in campaign positioning, they missed out on imitating the multi-song nominations of classic 90s Disney; “For the First Time in Forever,” in particular, as well as “Do You Want to Build a Snowman?” and “In Summer,” deserve consideration, and like “Belle” or “Friend Like Me” before them, would probably not have split votes with their same-movie competitors. (Disney was probably also underestimating what a massive hit Frozen would become.) Also, we all know it’s a shame “Please Mr. Kennedy” was ineligible, but “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby was and didn’t make it! This is a better-than-average crop of nominees, but if “Young and Beautiful,” “Kennedy,” “Moon Song,” and two from Frozen were in there, it would be the best group of five… maybe ever? At least since 1999, when the South Park guys and Aimee Mann got beat by Phil Collins. Please stop reclaiming Phil Collins now, everyone.