A Guide to Filling Out Your Oscar Ballot: Predictions in Every Category

02/28/2014 9:00 AM |

frozen movie disney

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar

Will Win: I’m guessing Omar based on very little…
Should Win: …because I am an Ugly American and haven’t seen any of these. Henry, care to weigh in here with an editor’s note? [No.—Ed.] [Just kidding. I’d put my weight behind The Great Beauty, but you really can never tell with this Best Foreign Film. Oscar voters in general have awful taste, but it’s especially unpredictable and strange in this category, I think.]
Missing: I didn’t love Blue is the Warmest Color so much that I care much about its omission here, but people will be wondering where it is so just FYI: it was released too late in the year in its country of origin to qualify for this category, one of those Oscar rules I don’t quite understand… it’s ineligible for awards because it came out in France closer to the time of its US release?!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: People seem to love 20 Feet from Stardom, and it probably makes them feel a hell of a lot better than The Act of Killing.
Should Win: Most buffs I know would go with The Act of Killing. I don’t really watch documentaries.
Missing: But I do want to see Stories We Tell, which I was surprised to not find on this list. [Also, Leviathan—Ed.]

ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Will Win: I don’t think anything can stop Frozen.
Should Win: And frankly, nothing needs to. It’s a pretty great movie. And Regular Disney, continuing its hot streak of the last few years, deserves its first proper Animated Feature Oscar.
Missing: After Brave weirdly took it from Wreck-It Ralph last year, it seems churlish to complain that Monsters University, not one of the best Pixar movies, is missing here. But it also seems churlish to pretend that Despicable Me 2 is a great or even good movie just because it made a shit load of money, so I’ll stand by it: the prequel deserved that sequel spot.